90% of computers will carry SSD with 700GB average capacity four yeas later
Nowadays, no matter the computer is bought or DIY by yourself it is necessary to be equipped with SSD. SSD is required when DIY due to its advantanges. However, the adaptation rate of SSD isn’t as high as expected, which is just more than a half of desktop computers and laptops carrying SSD. The SSD popularizing rate on PC will not exceed 90% until four years later with 700GB average SSD capacity on each PC.
According to some data from fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2023 in the latest report to investors released by Western Digital, market value of client SSD will be up to $16.8 billion from $12.3 billion, while whole shipment capacity is predicted to reach 222EB from 42 EB, which only increases 33% when capacity quadrupled. It can be seen that NAND flash memory prices will continue to fall in next few years, so growth rate of capacity will be much more higher than prices.
SSD adaptation rate will rise to 90% in fiscal 2023 from 53% in fiscal 2018, when will all computers equipped with SSD. In addition, average SSD capacity on desktop computer and laptop will be around 700GB.
Is the prediction conservative that average SSD capacity will not reach 700GB until 4 years later? Actually, the fiscal year of Western Digital begins from each June and fiscal 2023 starts from the middle of 2022, which means it is about 3 to 4 years after. As for SSD capacity, main force of shipments is 120/128GB capacity although many people are buying 240/256GB SSD now. Average capacity will not be too high considering inventory of low-end market. Thus the prediction of 700GB average capacity in between 2022 and 2023 is not low, after all most people will not feel it.
Besides price influence from SSD capacity growth, technologies improvement is also crucial. 96-layer stacking QLC flash memory will be main force of high-capacity SSD from this year. Latest SSD used in DIY will be over 1TB even 2TB 3 or 4 years later. But 4TB or higher capacity may be hard.