A New Year's guess: Previous 221 HDD manufacturers are left only three, so how many will be in the future among current 179 SSD manufacturers?
As we all know, there are only three HDD manufacturers left now, Seagate, WD and Toshiba, respectively. Moreover, none of these three companies is the first to make HHDs. None of the pioneers producing HHDs in the 1950-1960s persists to the end.
According to statistics, there used to be at least 221 HDD manufacturers in history. Some of the disbanded manufacturers include:
I wonder whether SSD manufacturers in the future will have the similar outcomes.
From the current statistics, there are now at least 179 SSD manufacturers.
After roughly counting, there are 21 SSD manufacturers in mainland China, such as Huawei.
A New Year's guess is whether there will be only 3 to 5 SSD manufacturers around the world, like today's HDD manufacturers.
HDD production needs a dust-free environment, so the investment of the factory is still relatively large. However, SSDs are all electronic parts, easy to assemble. Therefore, it’s estimated that there will be a lot of SSD manufacturers left in the future, especially some customized dedicated SSD manufacturers. But I guess there won't be more than 10 scale commercial SSD manufacturers in 50 years. It may be a little more than the three existing in HDD. I believe it’s similar to the number of server manufacturers.
As for who will stay in the future, many people think SSD granular manufacturers have the best chance.
There are only a few major manufacturers that now provide NAND granulars to SSDs:
These granular manufacturers have natural advantages in making SSDs, but computer manufacturers should also have the opportunity due to controlling sales channels.
Therefore, my guess is that in 50 years, there are about 10 commercial SSD manufacturers, while granular manufacturers and computer manufacturers should have the best chance.
How do you think about it? Welcome to give feedback on your views in the comments.